GEOPOLITICS: THE CARIBBEAN GAMBIT - HOW US POLICY INVITED RUSSIA TO VENEZUELAN SHORES

THE CARIBBEAN GAMBIT: HOW US POLICY INVITED RUSSIA TO VENEZUELAN SHORES 

This is an excellent topic for a GEOPOLITICS column. 

It's spurred by an YouTube video by Prof John Mearsheimer:

https://youtu.be/4nyy7p1TvJE?si=w-uVf2gMnE2JV-yD

Prof.Mearsheimer provides a clear, structural argument that connects U.S. foreign policy in Europe to the current crisis in the Caribbean.

​Here is a blogpost, designed to be impactful and structured, drawing directly from the core arguments and analysis presented in the video.

​The recent arrival of Russian warships in Venezuelan waters is not merely a naval exercise; it is a calculated and potent act of geopolitical signaling. This move challenges two centuries of American dominance in the Western Hemisphere, acting as a direct contest to the fundamental premise of the Monroe Doctrine [00:24]. It is a tangible sign that the world has decisively moved past the post-Cold War era of U.S. unipolarity and into a more complex, multi-polar age.

​To understand this 'tangle,' we must trace its roots back to the policy choices made by the United States following the collapse of the Soviet Union.

​1. The Blowback of Unipolarity: NATO Expansion

​In the early 1990s, the U.S. stood at the apex of global power. Instead of choosing a framework of cooperation to integrate a newly independent Russia, American policymakers chose dominance [03:16].

​The central strategic decision was the relentless march of NATO expansion eastward. While sold as an extension of democracy and security, to Moscow, each new wave was viewed as a slow-moving encirclement [03:42]. Experts like George Kennan, the architect of the original containment strategy, warned that this policy was the "most fateful error of American policy" 

​The pivotal moment arrived in 2008 with the announcement of NATO's intention for Ukraine and Georgia to eventually become members. This was seen by Russia as an absolute red line, an intolerable threat that placed missile systems just a few hundred miles from Moscow]. This mindset, rooted in the belief that U.S. dominance must be preserved at all costs, would soon be applied closer to home.

​2. Venezuela: A Target of Punitive Policy

​Venezuela, home to the world’s largest proven oil reserves, became a flashpoint where the same logic of dominance was applied.

​A Challenge to Order: When Hugo Chávez was elected in 1999, his mandate to redirect Venezuela's oil wealth to the poor majority was perceived by Washington not as an expression of democracy, but as an economic threat to its influence in the hemisphere 

​The Coercive Strategy: Following a failed 2002 coup attempt that had tacit U.S. support [07:02], the relationship spiraled into hostility. Under Nicolás Maduro, the U.S. imposed sweeping, indiscriminate sanctions. These measures were not the narrow, targeted kind; they were designed to cripple the entire economy, blocking oil exports and freezing billions in assets 

​Engineered Collapse: The goal, as former National Security Advisor John Bolton openly stated, was to "make the Venezuelan economy scream"  The resulting humanitarian catastrophe saw the economy shrink by over 75%, yet the government did not fall.

​3. The Inverted Containment: Russia's Response

​The sanctions policy failed to produce regime change, but it did achieve the opposite of its stated goal: it drove Caracas deeper into strategic partnerships with Russia, China, and Iran 

​Moscow recognized an opening—a chance to challenge the U.S. on its own global chessboard. The logic was simple and stark: If NATO could expand to Russia's borders, then Russia could extend its influence into the Western Hemisphere

​The naval deployments, which have been occurring periodically since 2008, are no longer ceremonial. Each Russian vessel off the coast of South America is a declaration, a direct message to Washington: "If you can deploy forces on our borders, we can do the same in yours"

 Russia provides military equipment, financial lifelines, and technical expertise, fortifying an alliance born out of necessity and a shared experience of Western coercion 

​A Moment of Reckoning

​The Russian fleet in the Caribbean is not an isolated event. It is the cumulative and entirely predictable result of a foreign policy built on the illusion of dominance rather than on the art of diplomacy Every attempt by the U.S. to maintain control through coercion has merely hastened the decline of its own influence, pushing alienated nations into a "geography of resistance" 

​The current situation is a warning, a mirror held up to American foreign policy. Moving forward, the U.S. faces a choice:

​Continue clinging to the failed strategies of coercion and dominance, accelerating decline.

​Choose a path rooted in realism and humility, recognizing that American power has limits and that the world is now multipolar.

​This requires a fundamental shift, beginning with the commitment to lift the crushing sanctions on Venezuela, engaging in direct dialogue, and accepting that the nation’s future belongs to the Venezuelan people, not to Washington, Moscow, or Beijing. Only by choosing diplomacy over dominance can a more stable and just global order be built.

​Video Source: 

Russia’s Naval Power Arrives — Venezuela Faces U.S. Pressure Head-On | Prof. John Mearsheimer - Mearsheimer Responds Channel

Grateful thanks to 

Prof. John Mearsheimer - Mearsheimer Responds Channel, YouTube

and Google Gemini for its great help and support in creating this blogpost!🙏